It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the (Apple) Year

Ok, maybe it's wishful thinking, but this is my take on things:

I think Apple will release new Powerbooks in January, maybe with a new iBook some time after, then iMac, Mini and everything converted by the end of the year. I think it was always unrealistic for them to take a year and a half to switch over.

Now I've read Murphy's rambling and they are entirely incoherent. What I could divine from his blog was that Intel is going to charge through the nose and that they're going to be late delivering and that Apple are going to have to give up and wait another year. And he's talking about Apple, the company that extracted price 40% below market on flash from Samsung, got record comapnies to agree to the most liberal terms for selling tnier music digitally and who convinced Disney and others to sell their TV programs online, a huge break from established practice. There is no question that Apple extracted a very favourable deal when they went with Intel. If anyone can get Yonahs in January (or February more likely) it is Apple.

I don't buy the argument that going to Intel on Powerbooks first doesn't make sense. The long suffering Powerbook users are hungry for performance and a dual core Intel is just the ticket. Home users don't really care what is in the box, they just want it to be friendly and pretty. Pro users understand the implications and are more likey than anyone to hold off. They know that in 1-2 years time a PPC processor will be a dog. They want to run Windows becuase their work requires it in one way or another and Virtual PC is tiresome. And they are also willing to pay a premium. Why would Apple introduce a low margin iBook when they can cash in with a high margin Powerbook. Hasn't Murphy heard of "early adpoters". Apple will want to cash in on the excitement. The whole industry is tuned to bring out the expensive stuff first to pay for R&D and drive setup costs which pay for the low margin stuff later.

People argue that pro apps won't be available in January so what is the point. Apple's pro apps will be done in Jan or Feb for sure. Adobe will be ready early next year no doubt (keep in mind they already run on Windows so they have all the low level hard-tuned assembly code is done). Even if some important stuff is not ready, Apple knows that having their flagship Powerbooks ready throws down the gauntlet to the software developers.

Cast your mind back to the announcement. Power per watt was the message. Powerbooks have been running lowly G4s for so many years and they're such an important part of Apple's business. No-ones been complaining that G5s are underpowered and they have dual cores and dual processors. Powerbook users have been patient, now they want their reward. And Powerbooks are clearly the best product to start Apple's incursion into the WinTel handware market, which is clearly part of their long term strategy in the switch to Intel.

Great post, satanist - good points.

Do you think that pros will be more likely to buy the Intel version than the average joe who just hears that there's an upgrade? Especially since the Intel version will invetiably have some kinks to work out?

personally, I am holding out until the 64bit dualies come out for the powerbooks. My decision to take the plundge is also going to depend on what video card they put in the MacTel powerbooks, as well as how easy it will be to run a REAL version of windows along side OSX. Oh, and I dont have the money yet and hope to later this year

I think that Apple will release both the iBook and the Powerbook. There's a reason for it.

Apple is getting a good deal with Intel. Why? Intel doesen't have to make such a good deal with apple, especially since other manufacturers like Dell won't like it. I think the answer lies in a conviniently sized "test group" that is apple and it's customers.

In the beginning, Intel won't get too good yields with the new dual core processor, Yonah. It would make sense for apple and intel to also create a market for single core yonah processors. They will put the bad yield dual cores on ibooks configured as single core and the good ones on powerbooks to get some of that oompf where apple wants it. The margins will be good and intel will be happy to get all the CPU:s sold easily.

Personally I don't think there will be an intel mac in January, the OS isn't quite ready since there are still issues with drivers, most softwares aren't ported over etc.

But I do agree that if ANY intel mac gets released in Jan it will most likely be the powerbook.

Apple is all about marketing , I don't believe it will ever be inexpensive. If they do release a laptop early in 06. It will the laptop that isn't the one you really want. 6 months later model will have the video card / or DVD burner or some feature you'll wish u had. I doubt users will be able to swap out parts like the WINTEL world with PC's, most hardware would probably be proprietory. Software apps should take a while to evolve but still in reasonable time. I Believe this is something really big for the PC world and could vastly increase Apple's share. Lets see if it works!. I will buy the OS if it's a reasonably priced solution, but for now I don't need new hardware to run the app's I can already run.

Why would they update the powerbook? They just did...

personally, I am holding out until the 64bit dualies come out for the powerbooks. My decision to take the plundge is also going to depend on what video card they put in the MacTel powerbooks, as well as how easy it will be to run a REAL version of windows along side OSX. Oh, and I dont have the money yet and hope to later this year

I have to agree with you. Ive heard rumors of OSX 10.5 requring Virtulization to be on the Proc. If thats the case the first Intel powerbooks/ibooks dont have VT. That is the main reason why im waiting till the next Pentium M. I also think the next pentium will have alot more enhancements since the P4 is gone and most of intel is working on the same chip. Ive heard rumors of bus speeds over 1600 for the next Pentium M and whatever the desktop solution of the same core is. I am also worried about the graphics card they put into the next powerbook/ibook. I really like playing some windows games and a 9700 would do it for me. Ive heard some stuff about the possiblity on intel graphics on the ibook or powerbook. That also makes me scared and I will not buy from them if thats the case. My last point of concern is its compatbility with windows. The main reason i dont like my ibook g4 is that i cant play windows games on it. This merge with intel should fix that as long as they allow me to dual boot.

The first Yonah include VT, they just don't have 64bit in this incarnation.

I don't know, I'm inclined to agree with the ZDNet guy on the Centrino thing - I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see yonah in the first Mactels.

I'd not be too surprised if there wasn't an update, it does make sense to wait on Merom or Conroe, at least on any 'Pro' products. -IF- there is an update with Yonah, it would be in the mini refresh or an ibook, but if they did the latter, it would be faster than powerbooks most of the time (on universal apps), so I doubt that, too.

And, 10.4.x sure seems a bit incomplete, still. Now if it is a mini unit w/no wifi (or they just drop the working wifi back in at the last minute) that uses onboard Intel Ethernet that does work, I guess it is feasible, possibly. lol